Arkansas Sports 360 - ArkansasSports360.com

10/28/2011 at 9:00am

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Arkansas travels to Vanderbilt on Saturday at 11:21 a.m.

Vanderbilt week is always the week everyone irrationally convinces themselves the Commodores pose a legitimate threat.

You won’t get any argument here. I’ve been afraid of the Vanderbilt game ever since last summer when I found out a good friend of mine scheduled her wedding for the day of the game. I’ve been nervous the immorality of fall weddings would somehow negatively influence the Razorback game, but thanks to a scheduling miracle, kickoff will be early enough for minimal conflict. Hopefully, that stroke of good luck is a sign of positive fortunes with this week’s picks.

I have to take a moment to thank the Tennessee Volunteers and head coach Derek Dooley. Last week, Saturday Roulette was reeling. After a hard-fought first half that saw the Volunteers head into the locker room tied with Alabama, it appeared highly unlikely Alabama would cover the 30-point spread and Saturday Roulette would suffer a second consecutive losing week. However, Tennessee must have spent halftime enjoying Rocky Top moonshine because they didn’t play the second half. The Crimson Tide scored all necessary 31 points before the fourth quarter was halfway over, and Saturday Roulette went 4-4 on the week (34-21-1 on the year). We appreciate your efforts, Coach Dooley and that of your Tennessee Volunteers. 

Wasn’t no 1-7 week, was it? Here are this week’s winners.

Arkansas (-10) @ Vanderbilt: Has anyone explained to the Razorbacks that just because they’re favored in a game doesn’t mean they have to actually spot the other team points? That’s not a joke. Arkansas’ opponents have scored first in each game since Troy. The two biggest deficits the Hogs have faced were to Texas A&M and Ole Miss, both of which were played outside the state of Arkansas and started before noon, and, coincidentally, those same conditions are in effect this week. So obviously Arkansas is going to give up somewhere between 7 and 63 points in the first half before adjustments allow them to stage an amazing comeback.

I think the Razorbacks will win. They should blow the Commodores out, but the Hogs will have to prove they’ll be up for these types of games for me to bet my hard earned fantasy dollars on them. I’ll take Vandy and the points. Also, it should be noted, the line opened at 12.5 and enough money has been bet on the Commodores to drop the line to 10. That’s not a good sign for Arkansas. Vanderbilt coach James Franklin, known for being, let’s say, actively involved, isn’t going allow the Commodores to gently lie down.

South Carolina @ Tennessee (o/u 43.5): It’s hard to pick the winner of a game given the many new faces in key positions. South Carolina will have to prove they can still run the ball without Marcus Lattimore. Tennessee is starting its third string quarterback, Justin Worley after burning his redshirt last week to execute dive plays and hand the ball off against Alabama. Said Dooley after the game, “I’ve never worried about redshirts, I just don’t care.” That’s the kind of long-term strategy that allows the Vol faithful to sleep at night.

So the question that has to be asked is, “Can these two teams score more than six touchdowns in this game?” I say no. The Vols haven’t scored six touchdowns total in the four SEC games they’ve played this season. Also, South Carolina didn’t score more than 14 points against both Mississippi State and Auburn, neither of which is known for defense, and only 21 points against Vanderbilt. I’m taking the under.

Mississippi State (-10) @ Kentucky: Kentucky is really bad. (How bad are they?) Kentucky’s so bad, John Calipari left a game saying, “they don’t pay me enough to watch that junk” (joke). They’re so bad, Joker Phillips is more likely to end the day a winner at the Keeneland race track (kind of a joke). They’re so bad, they will likely be underdogs at home against Ole Miss next week (not a joke). Really, most of the Kentucky fans will skip the game to stay at Keeneland. The tailgating will be better and the horse races more competitive than anything at Commonwealth Stadium. The Wildcats are so bad, they’ll make this year’s Mississippi State team look like last year’s Mississippi State team. Put your fantasy dollars on the Bulldogs in the Bluegrass. Also, Kentucky is organizing a stadium-wide blackout, which I believe is always a kiss of death.

Georgia (-3) vs. Florida: How many times does Florida have to win this game before everyone picks them by default? The Gators have won 18 of the last 21 games between the two and with John Brantley returning, it’s hard to see many clear advantages for Georgia, hence the low spread. History says to pick Florida, and who am I to argue? I’m picking the Gators.

Stanford (-7.5) @ Southern Cal: The only reason the line is this small is because the Trojans are getting a ton of credit for upsetting the overrated Team-That-Shall-Not-Be-Named-Because-I-Refuse-To-Add-To-Their-Overexposure-Wink-Wink (if you don’t feel like Googling USC’s schedule, that’s the school in northern Indiana associated with a small European island known mostly for Guinness and corned beef). Many thought the Cardinal would be on upset alert last week against Washington but Stanford promptly disposed of them by 44 points. The closest game Stanford has played this year was a 26-point win over UCLA. The spread could be doubled and I’d still pick Stanford.

Need some more? Here’s some other lines I like:

Washington (-4.5) over Arizona, Wisconsin vs. Ohio State under 51, Clemson (-3.5) over Georgia Tech.

As always, put your picks in a comment below and, remember, on-field wins and losses can be vacated, but your picks will live forever.

Doc Harper is a contributor to ArkansasSports360.com and a semi-professional handicapper. And by semi-professional we mean complete amateur. If you have any thoughts, questions, tips, a game you want to have picked, etc, please comment below. You can also follow his weekly fits of despair and/or triumph on Twitter @doc_harper.

Tagged: Stanford Cardinal, Southern Cal Trojans, Florida Gators, Georgia Bulldogs, Joker Phillips, James Franklin, Justin Worley, South Carolina Gamecocks, Tennessee Volunteers, Derek Dooley, Saturday Roulette, Vanderbilt Commodores, Arkansas Razorbacks